As the theme of the week, and I guess many months of the crisis originated in Tunisia, but has played in Egypt echo older, I started looking for information on what I think is the most important of this crisis.
Causes of the crisis in Egypt
The reasons for the Egyptian revolt are the same as those that explain the popular uprising in Tunisia. This is not a religious revolt, is a social revolt by poverty, unemployment, lack of freedom and no future horizon with young people. This in a country with 80 million inhabitants, where 50% are under 25 years
wikirevolucions Some have called these surveys. But the revelations are not WikiLeaks of which have caused this because these people do not need anyone to explain away the corruption of their regimes. When that young tunecí, peddler, was in protest autoimmolar daily humiliation to which they subjected the local police. This gesture of dying for the dignity they were reflected many young people. The uprising lasted until the government ordered the army to shoot the people, the military leaders deny it and from there the story has been told.
As spreads
The spread has followed a pattern similar to that of Tunisia, which were loaded in one month a scheme firmly settled since 1987. Something dramatic indignation overflowed contained by fear, generated demonstrations that represses the police and immediately images of repression and protest messages are disseminated on Internet social networks, amplifying the movement until the media not controlled by Government report and broadcast the images and messages that hang demonstrators on Youtube or other sites. Under the spreading protest, triggering the mobile networks, SMS, and twits the pages of Facebook and other networks, to build a system of communication and organization and no central leaders, who works with great efficiency, overflowing censorship and repression.
In Egypt, in a few days, tens of thousands of people joined Facebook and other social networks. The most popular group called "its people are burning, Mr President." And while governments are aware and put in place mechanisms for cyber war, the surfer can be difficult to contain. And the connection between youth culture and the Internet is at the root of the new popular power.
hard because both President Mubarak?
This permanence is not due to its resistance. What happens is that the situation is so complex that the parties both internal and external power to keep it artificially. On one hand, together with Western leaders say Turkey must listen to the people. At another extreme is that Saudi leaders have even said that some protesters are infiltrated (like heated four heads). Another is the different position of Israel, whose leaders fear the fall of Mr Mubarak as this was the first to sign a peace agreement with Israel. And in the thirty years that has been in power, peace agreements are respected.
Continuity Mubarak explained by the absence of clear leadership. So far, all opposition has been prepared to form a transitional government, but without any important figure at the helm.
Now what?
far been accused of being passive Egyptian society, someone has compared to a timber floating on the Nile and is carried away by running slowly. But now it turns out that this wood has suddenly jumped to a waterfall. This is because more than half of the population has known no other head of state that Mubarak. And the profile of the population has changed. Young people have more education, are highly urbanized, much more exposed to the outside world, much less patients. Only a few details: phone lines have gone from 2.8 per thousand in 1990 to 79.1 in 2009 and that infant mortality has risen from 78.5 per thousand to 34.8 years between them.
The government's plan to perpetuate himself in office through a traditional election gibberish, is likely to go ahead. The country is now facing three main possibilities. The first is to follow the path of Russia and find a strong man from within the system. The second is the way of Iran, and the anger sweeping around the current system, with a global reach of the consequences which can not be predicted. Or follow the path of Turkey and become a little less fragile and that all concerned were a little happier.
Sources: La Vanguardia, Now, The Economist, Manuel Castells
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